New study: Global cooling led to wars, famine and plagues in 1560-1660

The Thirty Years War (1618-1648) was particularly blody 

A new study published in the PNAS (Procedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America) shows that global cooling caused wars, famine and plagues during the so called Cold Phase (1560-1660 AD),

Here is the abstract:

Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560–1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined “golden” and “dark” ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.

The authors, as well as the article below published in Ars Technica, refer to "climate change" as the "ultimate cause" for the disasters. However, as the abstract and the article clearly indicate, the real cause for all those catastrophes was cooling. Warmer weather in the 18th century lead to a speedy recovery of both the economy and the population in Europe.

Cooling during the Cold Phase (1560-1660 AD) reduced crop yields by shortening the growing season and shrinking the cultivated land area. Although agricultural production decreased or became stagnant in a cold climate, population size still grew, leading to an increase in grain price and an increased demand on food supplies. Inflating grain prices led to hardships for many, and triggered social problems and conflicts such as rebellions, revolutions, and political reforms.
Many of these disturbances led to armed conflicts, and the number of wars increased 41 percent during the Cold Phase. During the latter portion of the Cold Phase, the number of wars decreased, but the wars lasted longer and were far more lethal—most notable was the Thirty Years War (1618-1648),where fatalities were more than 12 times of the conflicts between 1500-1619.
Famine became more frequent too. Nutrition deteriorated, and the average height of Europeans shrunk 2cm by the late 16th century. As temperatures began to rise again after 1650, so did the average height.
The economic chaos, famine, and war led people to emigrate, and Europe saw peak migration overlapping the time of peak social disturbance. This widespread migration, in conjunction with declining health caused by poor nutrition, facilitated the spread of epidemics, and the number of plagues peaked during 1550-1670, reaching the highest level during the study period. As a result of war fatalities and famine, the annual population growth rate dropped dramatically, eventually leading to population collapse.
In the 18th century, the mild climate improved matters considerably, leading to the speedy recovery of both Europe’s economy and population.

PS

This results of this study of course confirm what is wellknown from many other periods in the history of humanity: Prolonged periods of cold weather lead to a steep rise in mortality.

A more recent example from the US:

"From 1979 to 1997, extreme cold killed roughly twice as many Americans as heat waves, according to Indur Goklany of the U.S. Department of the Interior," Singer and Avery write. "Cold spells, in other words, are twice as dangerous to our health as hot weather."

Even the BBC has admitted that "Global warming 'may cut deaths."

EU warmists use opinion poll to hype increased interest in failed climate change policy

 Europe's top financial watchdog warned on Tuesday that the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis has become systemic and threatens global economic stability unless decisive action is taken urgently.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet issued the dramatic warning as chairman of the European Systemic Risk Board, created to avoid a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, amid growing fears that Greece will default on its massive debt.


The stern warning from the ECB president comes as no surprise. The same has been said by a great number of economists lately. Without doubt, ordinary citizens in Germany and the other EU net payer countries share Trichet´s worries (although they may not necessarily agree with all his suggestions for "decisive action").

The worsening financial crisis has also - quite sensibly - made governments in the major EU countries (e.g. Germany, France, Spain ,Italy and Holland) to rethink the huge subsidies - particularly for solar and wind energy -  which have beeen part of their "green agenda". The latest announcement comes from the David Cameron´s 'greenest government ever':

David Cameron and George Osborne want to scale back the green agenda on the grounds that low carbon technology, such as carbon capture storage (CCS) and offshore wind power, cost too much in a time of austerity.

The dramatic cuts in the "climate change" subsidies are happening at a time when opinion polls in most parts of the world show that ordinary citizens are less worried about climate change/global warming.

This development is, of course, extremely worrying for the EU climate change/global warming hight priests.

That is why EU climate commissioner Connie Hedegaard and her colleagues are now clinging to a fresh Eurobarometer poll, which appears to be showing that Europeans have become more worried about climate change. With the help of a number of "climate change friendly" journalists, the EU warmists have been able to create this kind of publicity:

Europeans believe that dangers of climate change represent a more serious problem than the current financial turmoil, according to a new poll
--
She (Connie Hedegaard) said it was striking that the public were even more concerned about climate change than in the runup to the landmark Copenhagen summit on climate change in late 2009.
The number of people rating climate change as a very serious problem has risen slightly, from 64% when the poll was last conducted in 2009, to 68% this year.

Read the entire article here

Those who doubt the earth's climate is changing are a diminishing breed in Europe, according to a new survey released Friday. It shows large majorities in the European Union see climate change as a very serious problem — and fighting it as an opportunity to create jobs and boost the economy.
Overall, EU residents see climate change as the second most serious problem facing the world, after poverty, hunger and lack of drinking water, which were taken together as a single issue.
The EU's climate change commissioner, Connie Hedegaard, called the survey encouraging.

Read the entire article here

What Hedegaard and her journalist helpers do not want to say, is that the attitudes of people in major EU countries have NOT changed in favour of climate change/global warming, according to the same  Eurobarometer poll:  

In some of the bigger Western and Scandinavian Member States – UK, Germany, Belgium,

Ireland, France, Sweden, Denmark, Finland – the level of concern has remained constant or

decreased since 2009.

(The increasing "concern" is, according to the survey, seen in such countries as Latvia, Slovakia and Poland.)

It should also be pointed out that, although the survey as such was done by professionals, it was commissioned by the Hedegaard´s Climate Action service, which also was able to formulate the questions. So, this is just another case of the old trick using statistics to hype a weak case, when everything else fails.

Just one example: When asked about the most serious problems in the world, "the economic situation" was one alternative in the poll. It is quite obvious that, had they asked people to choose e.g. the alternative "financial crisis", "euro crisis" or "recession", the answers would probably have been quite different.

Not really a lot to "celebrate" for Hedegaard.

Climate change a dead issue among Swedish vacationers

"During your vacation you want to have fresh towels every morning"

Sweden - along with Denmark - is traditionally considered to be one of the international leaders with regard to "fighting" global warming and climate change. But "times they are a changing", also in Sweden, at least when it comes to travelling.

Martin Durnik, head of marketing for Sweden´s biggest privately owned travel agency, Ticket, says that climate change is a completely dead issue among Swedish vacationers:

"The environment is not something you consider when choosing a travel destination. The customers ask neither about the environmental work of hotels and flight emissions, nor about climate compensation possibilities. Quite simply you leave your environmental interest at home. During your vacation you want to have fresh towels every morning".

During recent years the "climate issue" has figured prominently in the annual opinon poll about the travel habits of the Swedes. This year climate change questions were not even included, because there is nothing to say about the completely dead issue, according to Durnik.

Read the entire article (in Swedish) here

PS

Hopefully Paul Brown, President of Global Brands & Commercial Services, Hilton Worldwide (if he still has the job) and his colleagues take notice of these new findings (which probably are shared by travellers in other countries) before they again decide to switch off hotel lights and other equipment during "Earth Hour".

New "Nobel class" research: Salamanders unable to reach Washington in 2071-2080



Simulated into extinction?


Scientists at the Brown University have, using climate models, simulated the fate of the 15 species of frog in the US. None of the frogs are currently endangered, but after going through the Brown simulation, "eight species would be extinct or, at best, endangered in 2100".

Here is one of the new findings:

For example, during the latter half of this century, the speckled black salamander could expand from its range in northern California, north into Oregon. However, in the simulation, climate fluctuations rendered areas along that path unsuitable — for example, between 2071 and 2080 — preventing the animal from spreading toward Washington.

Read the entire article here

Isn´t it amazing, how the scientists are able to pinpoint that some "climate fluctuations" in areas north of California are going to stop the northward trek of the speckled black salamanders towards Washington state, exactly during the years 2071-2080. (Please note, that the salamanders "roads" are still open in 2070. Hopefully most of the amphibians will hit the road latest by then!).

Welcome to the wonderful world of climate modelling!

New paper published in Sciene: Plants adapt to climate change

Here is another hugely disappointing study for the climate alarmists:

A new paper, published in Science shows that plants seem to be rather succesfully adapting to a changing climate:

Plants may have the genetic flexibility to respond to climate change. In experiments with the common European plant Arabidopsis thaliana, a team of researchers led by Brown University scientists learned that climate is the agent that determines the suite of genes that gives the plant the best chance of surviving and reproducing throughout its natural range. The finding may unlock the molecular basis for other plants' adaptability to climate change

"We found that the genetic basis of survival and reproduction is almost entirely different in different regions, which suggests that evolutionary adaptation to one climate may not always result in a tradeoff of poor performance in another climate," said Schmitt, the Stephen T. Olney Professor of Natural History and professor of biology and environmental studies. "Thus, the Arabidopsis genome may contain evolutionary flexibility to respond to climate change."

Read the entire article here

Not a very suprising result, really. Humans, wild animals and plants have always adapted when the climate has changed. Anyway, the study should make good reading for the warmist community.

Robert Bryce: The world needs energy that is "cheap, abundant and reliable"

Robert Bryce, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, thinks that it is time to accept that the world needs to produce a lot more energy in order to "remain productive and comfortable". The energy needed will not  be provided by renewables.

Bryce concludes realistically:  

Will Happer, a professor of physics at Princeton and a skeptic about global climate change, recently wrote that the "contemporary 'climate crusade' has much in common with the medieval crusades." Indeed, politicians and pundits are hectored to adhere to the orthodoxy of the carbon-dioxide-is-the-only-climate-problem alarmists. And that orthodoxy prevails even though the most ardent alarmists have no credible plans to replace the hydrocarbons that now provide 87% of the world's energy.
It's time to move the debate past the dogmatic view that carbon dioxide is evil and toward a world view that accepts the need for energy that is cheap, abundant and reliable.

Read the entire Wall Street Journal article here

Poland does not want EU to regulate shale gas exploration

The Polish government has - probably very wisely - changed its position on the need for EU regulation for shale gas exploration. The Poles have realized that a common EU shale gas policy could in  reality mean an end to Poland´s golden opportunity to rid itself of the dependence on Russian gas:

Poland, long seen as promoting a common European approach to shale gas, has now published a surprising study describing possible EU regulation on the industry as "unfeasible".

Just ahead of its Presidency, Poland had lobbied for shale gas to become a "common European project". But Warsaw would apparently now prefer Brussels to abandon plans to develop the industry.
The Polish Permanent representation to the EU hosted a public event in Brussels on Tuesday (4 October) to present a new study on shale gas, published in Warsaw the day before.
The paper, published by the Polish Institute of International Affairs, is called: "Path to prosperity or road to ruin? Shale gas under political scrutiny." It argues against a European approach to shale gas regulation, distancing itself from the earlier Polish position.
Since last June, when environmental concerns led France to ban hydraulic fracturing - the technology by which shale gas is extracted - there has been no common European approach to the sector. Warsaw is believed to have feared that regulatory restrictions would evolve from a common policy.
The study admits that Poland could be counted on as a European nation where one could speak excitedly about shale gas. In pushing for its development, Poland is not so much motivated by the expected "inflow of petrodollars", but by the political implications for Polish energy security, the authors say.
Optimistic expectations regarding Polish shale gas reserves contributed to the euphoria, the report admits. For the last couple of years, more than a hundred of concessions have been granted for shale gas exploration. The list of beneficiary companies include energy majors such as Chevron, Marathon oil, Exxon Mobil, Conoco Phillips and ENI.
---
"What seems obvious from the EU level becomes less so from the perspective of an individual member state," write the authors, who claim that for Central Europe, "shale gas should be seen as a local or regional game-changer".
The authors take stock of the public debate in various European countries including France, where the Parliament has banned hydraulic fracturing.
"Because of the complexity and breadth of this debate, it seems unfeasible to consider introducing a comprehensive legal or regulatory framework [on shale gas] within the EU," they conclude.

Read the entire article here

PS
The Poles have realized that the less EU regulation (lobbied for by nuclear power producing France and the green movement in an unholy alliance with Russia´s Gazprom) the better. With the UK and possibly some other EU members on their side, the Poles should be able to protect their national interest and be ready for the gamechanging shale gas revolution.

PS 2

Robert Amsterdam notes that the Poles are now in Moscow trying to lower the much too high price Gazprom is demanding for gas:

The heads of Poland’s state gas company PGNiG are in Moscow to negotiate what they hope will be up to a ten% reduction in gas prices from Russian energy giant Gazprom. Echoing a threat by Ukraine, should talks fail to reap the desired conclusion, Poland is apparently willing to take the matter to international arbitration.

In the not too distant future, the Poles will fortunately be in a much better position to say NJET to the Russians!