Gazprom's (and Putin's) business model is losing its shine

The end is near for Gazprom's (and Putin's) business model: 

Technological progress is threatening its business model and the company that has long monopolized the market has failed to adjust in time. "Eat or be eaten" has been its general operating principle when it comes to prices. For decades, many countries, including Ukraine, relied on Gazprom for its gas supply, but the market is becoming increasingly global. With the supply of natural gas growing and prices falling, Gazprom is beginning to lose its grip on the market.

Three-Fold Pressure

There are three primary risks that are threatening the country. For one, rivals in the Middle East are constructing facilities for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and developing a fleet of special tankers that will be able to transport LNG to destinations thousands of kilometers away -- further than any pipeline and with far more flexible trade routes. In Europe and Asia, LNG is increasingly competing with Gazprom. Qatar in particular has massively boosted its LNG supply to Europe: In 2011, the emirate exported 44 billion cubic meters, compared to 5 billion cubic meters in 2006.

Secondly, Norway is expanding its gas exploration and wresting market share from Russia in Europe. According to Eurostat, the European Union's statistical authority, Norway's gas sales in Europe rose by 16 percent in 2012, while Gazprom's fell by 8 percent.

And thirdly, thanks to new drilling methods, it has become easier to extract natural gas trapped in permafrost, dense clay and, especially, shale, allowing for gas production in previously untapped regions. In the US particularly, fracking, as it known, has triggered a gas bonanza, making it hard for Russia to get a foothold in the market. Gazprom was aiming to secure 10 percent of the US market, but this goal now seems decidedly out of reach.

The Kremlin is feeling the effects of these developments in the gas market. In coming years, EU countries such as Poland are planning to concentrate on unconventional gas extraction in order to reduce reliance of Russia. With gas and oil accounting for 50 percent of state revenue, a drop in Russian exports will hit Moscow hard. In addition, it will lose leverage over countries such as Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and other states that used belong to the Soviet sphere of influence. The German intelligence service Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND) predicts that the erstwhile energy giant will soon begin to lose power.

Read the entire article here

The published version of Bundesnachrichtendienst's analysis does not say it, but it goes without saying that Gazprom's loss of power in reality also means the end of Vladimir Putin's "business model", which is solely based on the easy billions from gas and oil exports flowing into the state coffers. 

Putin will of course try to cling to power as long as he can, but sooner or later he will share the fate of all other dictators ...

A book review in the Guardian: "Extreme pornography and natural disasters caused by climate change are described with equal force"

A novelist reviews a new novel by another contemporary novelist:

"Griffiths's language is lyrical, brutal and startling; it requires and deserves a robust reader. At times, this fury risks shading into a monotone: cosmetic surgery, extreme pornography and natural disasters caused by climate change are described with equal force. Yet this frantic even-handedness is meaningful: in the world Griffiths creates, the ageing and decay of individuals, of a society and of a planet are laid against each other in a portrait of hopelessness and helplessness"

(Review of "A Great Big Shining Star" by Niall Griffiths in the Guardian)

Thank God that I still have the books by Austen, Hardy, Dickens and Powell in my library to reread! 

Dr. James Lovelock: Wind turbines "may become like Easter Island statues"

Words of wisdom from former global warming alarmist Dr James Lovelock:

Lovelock is objecting to a "medium sized" (240ft high) erection planned for his neighbourhood in North Devon by infamous windfarm operator Ecotricity. The UK currently has 3,000 onshore turbines and 6,000 are planned: this is the main reason why electricity bills are soaring out of control in order to pay for the inefficient, highly expensive windmills. Lovelock calls the runaway windmill building "industrial vandalism".
In an objection to the planning application made to Tiverton council, Lovelock points out that one nuclear power station provides as much power as 3,200 industrial wind turbines, without the environmental damage. In fact, he seems to be understating the case: we would calculate* one nuclear powerplant as equivalent to 5,400 wind towers of the sort discussed above.
He concludes:

I am an environmentalist and founder member of the Greens but I bow my head in shame at the thought that our original good intentions should have been so misunderstood and misapplied. We never intended a fundamentalist Green movement that rejected all energy sources other than renewable, nor did we expect the Greens to cast aside our priceless ecological heritage because of their failure to understand that the needs of the Earth are not separable from human needs. We need to take care that the spinning windmills do not become like the statues on Easter Island, monuments of a failed civilisation.

Lovelock is a long-time advocate of nuclear energy. But he also supports switching to lower-emission fossil fuels too, arguing they also do the job.
"Let's be pragmatic and sensible and get Britain to switch everything to methane. We should be going mad on it [fracking]", Lovelock The Grauniad last year.

Václav Klaus: "the best promoter of “social and environmental quality” is economic growth"

Opposing the global warming hoax does not mean that one does not care for the environment. On the contrary, as Czech President Václav Klaus pointed out in his remarks at the EU-CELAC Summit in Santiago de Chile, on 26 January:

- The term sustainable development is not an economic concept, but a political doctrine with far-reaching economic implications, and

- the best promoter of “social and environmental quality” is economic growth. The history has proved that the optimal economic response to social and environmental problems is abandoning any policies that hinder economic growth.

To say that does not imply any underestimation of social and environmental problems. This statement of mine is about sequencing – the economic growth makes the achievement of non-economic goals and ambitions possible. Being wealthier and having greater human capital means being able to employ cleaner, environment protecting technologies.

We have to take care of our forests, rivers, seas, of the air in the cities, but we should stop fighting the non-existent danger, the ideological doctrine of excessive, the planet and people endangering, man-made global warming. I find it promising that this catastrophic view about the future has already crossed its zenith. In our efforts to guarantee a prosperous future for both continents, Europe and Latin America, we should refute such politically motivated environmental agendas.

Schwarzenegger and Barroso congratulate themselves in Vienna

Arnold Schwarzenegger saves the world :
"I still drive my Hummers but now they are all on hydrogen and biofuel ..."

Arnold Schwarzenegger has taken his climate change/global warming road show to his former home country. On Thursday he opened the Regions of Climate Action (R-20) conference in Vienna: 

Arnold Schwarzenegger called Thursday for an end to "doom and gloom" environmentalism as he hosted the first conference of his new green movement fostering action by local governments and individuals.

"If we want to inspire the world, it is time for us to forget about the old way of talking about climate change, where we crush people, where we overwhelm people with data," the former California governor, bodybuilder and film star said.

"I mean I still drive my Hummers but now they are all on hydrogen and biofuel ... We need to send a message that we can live the same life, just with cleaner technology." Following his success implementing environmental legislation in California ahead of federal US action, Schwarzenegger's created the R20 Regions of Climate Action movement in 2010.

Reality check: 

California, once the most attractive business environment in the nation, is today caught in a downward economic spiral while Texas is on the upswing.

Between 1960 and 1990, more than four million people moved to California, attracted by the state’s beauty, weather and booming economy. However, a 2012 study by the Manhattan Institute found, that since 1990, California has lost most of that gain as millions moved out of the state.

Many of those who left were business owners driven out by California’s high income taxes, oppressive regulations, high energy costs, property taxes and labor costs. As employers relocated to Texas, Nevada and Arizona, workers followed, taking their money with them -- a total of $18.55 billion in lost wages from 2000-2010.

Once a magnet for job creators, California’s unemployment rate has been higher than the national average for the last 22 years.

In 2012, 650 business leaders surveyed by Chief Executive Magazine rated California the worst state in the nation for business -- for the eighth consecutive year. That same survey rated Texas #1 for the eighth year in a row.

The "keynote" speaker, European Commission president José Manuel Barroso was full of praise for the "succesful" European Union working method: 

"Regions20 is a shining example of this new mind-set in business and in government at the regional level, because it draws on so many stakeholders and their expertise. In many respects the work of R20 is similar to that of the European Union, as it connects different actors on all levels to cooperate on common challenges - to be stronger together.

Within the European Union this has been our successful working method of more than half a century"

Reality check:

Unemployment in the euro zone hit a record high of 11.8 percent in November, according to a new Eurostat report. In Spain, Greece, and Portugal, joblessness has never been higher during this crisis.

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Unemployment for workers under 25 is now closer to 60 percent than 50 percent in Spain and Greece, and youth joblessness is rising in France, Italy, and Portugal.

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Optimistically, Europe will grow about 0.0% this year. The last time Spanish growth was this weak was during the Spanish Civil War. Greece's GDP decline is the worst of any peaceful, non-communist post-WWII economy.

(image by wikipedia)

German wind energy 2012: No increase in wind energy production despite 1000 new wind turbines

A sudden outburst of honesty by a representative of the German wind energy industry:

But despite the increase in the number of units (1000 new units, NNoN), the amount of electricity they contributed to the grid merely remained stable. According to Sylvia Pilarsky-Grosch, vice president of the German Wind Energy Association, "We didn't produce more electricity in 2012 with wind energy than we did in 2011." And one of the reasons for that was that there simply wasn't enough wind.

Yes indeed, when the wind does not blow, neither German, nor any other  wind turbines produce energy. And when the sun does not shine, not even the most expensive solar panels add energy to the grid. 

So much for the reliability of these renewable sources of energy. 

Blind Chinese activist Chen Guangcheng urges global pressure on China over human rights

Blind Chinese activist Chen Guangcheng, who yesterday received the Tom Lantos Human  Rights Prize in Washington, urged United States not to let business concerns prevent it from pressing China over human rights:

“We must not only remember the atrocities of the fascists, but also recognise that today authoritarianism is firmly entrenched, and that the barbarism of the authoritarian system is the greatest threat to civilized societies,” said Chen. -

“We must not only remember the atrocities of the fascists, but also recognise that today authoritarianism is firmly entrenched, and that the barbarism of the authoritarian system is the greatest threat to civilized societies,” said Chen.-

“Recently, many friends and neighbours who I have been in touch with by phone have been taken into custody by the authorities for questioning. They have been threatened and made to describe what our conversations have been about,” he said.

The United States bore a special responsibility to uphold and promote its basic founding principles, despite economic weakness that has prompted some deference to fast-growing power China over human rights in recent years, he said.

While “it is clearly difficult to shift attention away from issues of finance and the economy, remember that placing undue value on material life will cause a deficit in spiritual life,” said Chen.

“You must establish a long-term plan for human rights and not compromise on it, ever,” he added.-

“Democracy, freedom and justice don’t just happen. We must strive for them through action,” he said.

“Last year, Myanmar lifted the ban on political parties, and last Friday it abolished media censorship. What the people in Myanmar do, we can do, too,” said Chen.

Read the entire article here

Chen's appeal is of course also directed to all other western leaders, who for years now have been kowtowing to China's corrupted communist party bosses in a vain hope of reaping economic rewards.