Friday, 4 January 2013

New study: There will be less - not more - tropical cyclones in the future

In spite of Sandy, the "new normal" is LESS, not more tropical storms:

A new study by Masato SugiJapan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Jun YoshimuraMeteorological Research Institute of Japan, published in the Geophysical Letters (Vol 39, Issue 19), shows that the frequency of tropical storms has decreased since 1872 - and that this decrease will continue also in the future:

We conducted 228-year long, three-member ensemble simulations using a high resolution (60 km grid size) global atmosphere model, MRI-AGCM3.2, with prescribed sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases and aerosols from 1872 to 2099. We found a clear decreasing trend of global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency throughout the 228 years of the simulation.

In another abstract the authors confirm the trend:
In our recent 228 year long simulations from 1872 to 2099, a decreasing trend of global TC frequency is found not only in the future but also in the past during the twentieth century.

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