Thursday, 25 August 2011

"A tremendous recovery in world wheat production" - warmists wrong again

Flasback May 2011:

A new study published in Science today by researchers at Stanford University, Columbia University and the National Bureau of Economic Research has found that the warming of the planet over the last few decades have already led to a measurable reduction in crop yields for major staple grains.
Read the entire article here

Reality check:

If you look at the USDA forecast for wheat output in all of the big wheat producing countries and put those all together;
Bange: “You see a tremendous recovery in world wheat production.”
In fact Agriculture Department Outlook Board Chairman Gerry Bange says this year’s world wheat production will be close to a record 672 million tons, about 24 million tons more than last year.
Bange: “Its paramount to adding another Canada or another Australia to the world in terms of production. So we are seeing a very strong increase in wheat production this year, which is good I think.”

Read the entire article here

Russia’s projected wheat production is up 3.0 million tons this month to 56.0 million, with winter wheat yields at the second highest ever, 2008 being the record. The winter wheat harvest has been more than 75 percent completed in the South and North Caucasus Districts, and reports indicate exceptionally strong yields. Also, spring wheat growing conditions have been favorable in most of the country’s regions, especially in the Urals, upper Volga Valley, and most of Siberia with good timely rains, though parts of Siberia (Altai) and the Central District have suffered from dryness.

According to the government agency responsible for grain quality evaluation in Russia, this year the quality is expected to be better than average, with the share of food wheat at 75 percent. Ukraine’s wheat production prospects are also increased 3.0 million tons this month to 21.0 million.

India’s wheat production for 2011/12 was increased 1.9 million tons this month to a record 85.9 million, based on revised government estimates. Most of the crop was harvested months ago, and the government estimate should be close to final.
China’s wheat production is increased 1.5 million tons to 117.0 million.

Read the entire article here

No doubt the Stanford, Columbia and NBER researchers will declare that this years bumper wheat harvest is just an aberration - soon global warming will seriously decrease harvests... 
Warmists will always have an easy explanation when reality disproves their models. Fortunately they have lost their credibility long ago.

PS 2
I am pleased to note that my blog has reached the heights of the "scientists" at RealClimate:

@405 Septic Matthew says:Here is another pothole on the road to civilizational collapse:
Septic, really, if you’re going to do your reasoning like the do at WUWT, why bother posting at all? You are seriously touting grain production from one year as the savior of humanity? Year-to-year variation in crop production of all kinds is as variable as the weather. I guess last year, when Russia lost 30% of it’s grain crop, was just a mirage.
Bore hole material: nothing but propaganda (not the data, the post) and ignorant of scientific process.

Last year warmists were busy claiming that the drought in Russia and the bad harvest was a result of global warming. Now, when we have a global bumper harvest, these people are arguing that it is only "year-to-year variation" in crop productions. One wonders, why did the warmists not use the same reasoning last year with regard to the harvest in Russia? Besides, nowhere have I been "touting grain production from one year as the savior of humanity".Still, I am quite confident that farmers also in the future will be able to increase grain production, as they have done so far, in spite of all doomsday predictions from the RealClimate bunch and their predecessors.

1 comment:

A K Haart said...

I wonder if the BBC will report this story - to balance their "Climate shifts hit global wheat yields" story in May.

Nope - just checked.