Monday, 2 April 2012

The shale gas revolution is good for the US - and Europe

Fareed Zakaria´s column on the importance of the shale gas revolution is worth reading:

The United States now has, at current consumption rates, at least 75 years’ worth of recoverable natural gas. More important, the United States has become the world’s low-cost producer of natural gas. That fact is already changing the future of U.S. manufacturing. Companies such as Dow Chemical and Westlake Chemical are finding that low U.S. energy costs can mitigate the lower cost of labor in Asia – making it economical to keep and even build manufacturing facilities in the United States.
That might also help explain why high oil prices are not slowing down the U.S. economy as much as has been feared. Robert Hefner, a natural gas entrepreneur and author of “The Grand Energy Transition,” points out that the cost of heating 65 million American homes by natural gas has fallen $20 billion annually.
The environmental concerns are well taken. But the best studies out now – such as one by a committee that included the head of the Environmental Defense Fund – suggest that fracking can be done in a safe and responsible manner. Many of the riskiest practices are employed by a small number of the lowest-cost producers, a situation that calls for sensible regulation. Larger companies would probably welcome a set of rules, because they would want to follow best practices to protect their reputation and brand.
The age of natural gas will have geopolitical consequences. Until now, oil has been traded on a global market, but natural gas has been local. Because it is difficult to transport gas, countries with abundant resources and good pipelines get to set the price. Russia is able to demand up to $17 per thousand cubic feet from neighbors such as Ukraine and nations in Europe. The United States can produce natural gas for $2.50 per thousand cubic feet, and it has the world’s best and cheapest liquefying technology. Liquefied natural gas will create a single global market, and when long-term Russian contracts with Europe expire, Moscow will face a dramatic shortfall in revenue.
We will move from a world in which a few countries – Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia – control the price and supply of natural gas to one in which this resource is far more dispersed. (For now, Iran does not have access to the technology needed to capitalize on its resources.)
Oil is famously found in difficult, dysfunctional places – and oil may be the cause of those problems. The new finds of shale gas are not in traditional resource states. The largest deposits appear to be in China, with sizable ones also in Argentina, Mexico, Poland, Canada and Australia. The geopolitical ramifications of these deposits are many, but some things are clear: It will be a blessing for Poland to have its own secure energy source and not have to depend on the vagaries of the Kremlin.
The rise of shale gas is shaping up to be the biggest shift in energy in generations. And its consequences – economic and political – are profoundly beneficial to the United States.

From a European point of view, the most important development of the shale gas revolution will be the diminishing role of Putin´s Russia in the energy markets. This will finally lead to the end of Putin´s corrupted and criminal government. 

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