Sunday, 7 October 2012

Harvard study: " Between 2010 and 2099, climate change will cause an additional 30,000 murders, 200,000 cases of rape"

A new Harvard study "estimates the impact of climate change on the prevalence of criminal activity in the United States": 

"Between 2010 and 2099, climate change will cause an additional 30,000 murders, 200,000 cases of rape, 1.4 million aggravated assaults, 2.2 million simple assaults, 400,000 robberies, 3.2 million burglaries, 3.0 million cases of larceny, and 1.3 million cases of vehicle theft in the United States."

The study amply demonstrates what creative artists scientists can do when they base their simulations on the  IPCC, Hadley Centre and  the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research climate models:

"To assess how climate change is likely to a ffect crime rates in the United States, I combine the
regression estimates from the previous section with data on simulated U.S. weather conditions 

for the time period from 2010 to 2099. These simulations are based on the IPCC's A1B 
scenario, a \middle-of-the-road" climate change scenario that assumes eventual stabilization 
of atmospheric CO2 levels at 720 ppm (IPCC, 2000, 2007). 

I use predictions from two general circulation models: the U.K. Hadley Centre's HadCM3 climate model, and the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research's CCSM3 climate model."

Isn't it amazing what science can do nowadays! 

Matthew Ranson, the author of this groundbreaking new study, must be a serious candidate for one of the Nobel prizes next year. 

1 comment:

Papa Zu said...

The author uses A1B model assumptions which predicted a .3 degreeC rise in average global temperatures from the start of 2000to present day. The A1B HadCRUT3V data point for latest month should be at .7C on the following graph.

More tax payer funded GIGO. This is Bernie Madoff quality science. :-)